With a highly successful, no let's be specific.....THE MOST successful Gulfstream winter meet I've EVER had in the rear view mirror the attention shifts to the spring Triple Crown classics and then on to the Breeders' Cup which will be held in Louisville at historic Churchill Downs. The spring/summer/fall racing schedule will be "interrupted" by several adventures as my retirement travels continue. In late June through the middle of July Kim and I will be in Europe as we sail on a Viking Oceans adventure from London to Scotland, on to Norway and then a post trip to Iceland. We are back less than ten days and we are on a short Caribbean cruise to celebrate our niece Khloe's high school graduation. After taking August off we will be in Kansas for Labor Day weekend and then on Kim's birthday we head to the Pacific Northwest to undertake a Columbia River Cruise on American Cruise Lines, as we repeat (in reverse order) our adventure of 2017 with her family. I will be home for just eleven days and then I fly to Ohio to pick up my sister and she will accompany me to Europe for a Viking River Cruise, "The Elegant Elbe." We will return to Columbus on October 29th, which is a Monday and THAT Friday is the Breeders' Cup! So let's get this party started........
April 2018
April 8: Appalachian Stakes Day
The spring racing season began while Kim and I were on our "Rhine Getaway" in early April. The Florida Derby Day experience had been on Saturday March 31 and the following Tuesday we were flying across the Atlantic, so I knew there was no way I'd have time - or honestly the interest - in handicapping Saturday April 7th Derby prep cards: The Santa Anita Derby, The Wood Memorial, and The Bluegrass Stakes. But as we were sailing down the Rhine I was checking racing news when I saw that two-year-old filly turf champion Rushing Fall was slated to run in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes on Sunday April 8. I didn't need a racing form to know that the unbeaten filly would be a solid wager. So through the wonder of the Internet I made the investment around dinner time Europe time (six hours ahead) and then watched the replay late that night (when it was early evening in Kentucky).
The spring racing season began while Kim and I were on our "Rhine Getaway" in early April. The Florida Derby Day experience had been on Saturday March 31 and the following Tuesday we were flying across the Atlantic, so I knew there was no way I'd have time - or honestly the interest - in handicapping Saturday April 7th Derby prep cards: The Santa Anita Derby, The Wood Memorial, and The Bluegrass Stakes. But as we were sailing down the Rhine I was checking racing news when I saw that two-year-old filly turf champion Rushing Fall was slated to run in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes on Sunday April 8. I didn't need a racing form to know that the unbeaten filly would be a solid wager. So through the wonder of the Internet I made the investment around dinner time Europe time (six hours ahead) and then watched the replay late that night (when it was early evening in Kentucky).
Much the best and I cashed (note I'm showing off my winnings in Euros....ha ha ha, I'm so clever!)
April 14: Arkansas Derby Day
On our final night of our trip while at a hotel in Lake Lucerne, Switzerland I downloaded the past performances for Oaklawn on Saturday when we'd be home in South Florida (note the Breeders' Cup jacket I wore throughout the trip....oh yeah!). I was able to do some handicapping on the flight from Newark to Fort Lauderdale and then I finished on Saturday morning. For the afternoon I had six selections from Hot Springs and one international pick - Winx in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Radwick. I made that bet Friday evening as her post time would be at about 1 am. As I watched the replay I have to admit to being a bit concerned when as they hit the far turn she seemed completely unhurried and in the back of the pack. But when jockey Hugh Bowman asked her to run she swung into the clear and mowed down the field like they were all running at half speed! Should have upped the bet as she paid $2.70, which was a HUGE payoff for a champion winning her 25th in a row!
The first half of the Arkansas Derby Day card was light with selections. Not sure if it's because I was handicapping at the end of a day-long international flight; being conservative; or there just weren't any runners worth my money. But through through the first seven races I had just two minimum play selections - ran 2nd and 3rd. In the Northern Spur Stakes Title Ready was the 4/5 favorite and was only fourth. But then I hit my first big winner of the afternoon when Whitmore ran in the Grade 2 Count Fleet Handicap. Whitmore was the penultimate "Horse for the Course" with five wins in eight tries over the Arkansas main track and it was noteworthy that all three losses came when trying two turns when on the early Derby trail as a 3yo. Since then he was a perfect five-for-five in one turn sprints with ALL of them earning triple digit Beyer figures, including his win in this event last spring (when I was there!) and in the prep for this. He looked to sit farther back today and make a big late run. Did exactly that and won going away as a prime time selection!
I thought that So Cal invader Accelerate was equally formidable in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. He was 2-for-2 at the nine furlong distance and was exiting a 110 Beyer figure when winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. But he was upset and ran second at 6/5 odds. But the feature race of the day and signature event of the meet was my race.....the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby. Todd Pletcher's Magnum Moon had broke his maiden at Gulfstream in January when I was in New Orleans at the Fair Grounds with my buddy Jim Anderson. Despite being a first timer he was my BET of the Day. So when he paid a remarkable $9.20 I cashed for nearly $150! I nearly missed his next start but I was handicapping a Friday card at Gulfstream in mid-February when I noted top rider Luis Saez was not on any horses. Thought that odd and so I checked the entries at other tracks and saw he was on Magnum Moon in an allowance event going two turns at Tampa. I knew this was his "Derby prep" test and so I had him again as he easily won. Next time out he was entered in the Grade 2 Rebel here at Oaklawn. Jim and I were on ANOTHER racing adventure, this time at Laurel Park and I liked him again. I went back and forth about the wagering amount before finally sticking with my initial plan where I tripled the bet, and again he was MUCH the best!
I looked at the past performances, but it was a foregone conclusion who'd I be supporting! He looked, on paper to have an ideal trip pressing the pace to the far turn and then running away. But when they broke from the gate he was alone on the lead. You could see Saez look at the others as if to say, "Really, you want ME to take the lead?" And so he did. Coasted at a good clip through the far turn and when a challenger made a bid he accelerated for the wire and won convincingly, stamping himself as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites. I had upped to bet by a click to make him my BEST of the Day and I finished on the day 3-for-7 (counting the Winx race, since it technically was on Saturday)!
Thursday April 19: Keeneland Racing
I didn't have plans to play the races on this Thursday but I'd completed all the "to do" items on my list and had time to handicap the races in the morning. I found six runners worthy of investing and won with two of the first three. The first was a Wesley Ward first time starting two-year-old, like those are a big secret at Keeneland this time of the year.....
.....and then Portfolio Manager in the third. The Midwest Thoroughbred-owned runner had been moved from a NY trainer's barn to Tom Amoss' barn in New Orleans and he tried him in a turf sprint. No good as he ran his lowest career Beyer. Back to the main track and dropped in for $20K he looked formidable and was the DRF "best" of the day.
Scored with a triple investment and finished 2-for-6 today.
Saturday April 21: Opening Day at Woodbine
Friday we drove to Orlando for a weekend with our grandson (and his parents) and I planned to play the Woodbine Opening Day card, as well as a couple of races from Keeneland.
As I had started handicapping the Woodbine card on Friday morning I remembered that local handicapper and author Jim Mazur - from whom I frequently have bought handicapping books most notably for their "40% Club" stats - usually had an arrangement with Woodbine and offered his books for free via their website. Sure enough, I found them and downloaded the handicapping tools. RIGHT away they paid big dividends! The third race was a starter allowance going seven furlongs. The program favorite was Kapellmeister, and he was a deserving favorite I thought. While they didn't show in his past performances he was a perfect 2-for-2 over the synthetic surface. In addition he was Woodbine analyst Jim Bannon's BEST of the day. But what drew my attention was the "club" angles. According to the Woodbine 40% Club stats, trainer Norman McKnight had raced 29 runners for the ownership group of Racer's Edge & McMasters over the last two racing seasons, and he won with a remarkable fifteen - that is a whopping 52% for those of you without your calculator handy! YOWZA! In addition, McKnight made the "Win Early" list for Mazur with 37% winners over the first twenty days of racing. Finally, jockey Brian Hernandez was a 31% winner for the barn. Figured to go off at odds on, but I looked to cash and make some money as he was my BEST BET of the day. I watched the races early Saturday evening and when watching replays from Woodbine the little chicklets only show the numbers not the odds or names of the runners. When Kapellmeister came up the rail - after encountering trouble through the turn and into the lane - to score I was delighted. Then I saw the payoff - oh my!
What a gift from the countless handicappers who obviously did NOT have their copy of the Woodbine Handicapper. WHOOOO HOOOOO! The fourth at Keeneland was a maiden claiming sprint for $20K and that was the "issue" I had with favored Ravish. He'd earned a big 66 Beyer when plunged to the basement at the Fair Grounds for just $12.5K and if able to reproduce that he'd win for fun. How to interpret the step UP in claiming price today? As it turned out I should have seen it as a positive as he did win convincingly.
The eighth at Woodbine was their featured Jacques Cartier Stakes going six furlongs and the star attraction of the race and the day was 2017 Canadian Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd. I had had this guy on many of his eight straight wins last year, all here, all in stakes including two open/graded events. If he was ready to roll off the shelf he would make short work of these rivals. I read the news article on the Woodbine site in advance of the race and I had somewhat mixed feelings about what his trainer had to say. On the one hand, he repeated three times, ".....I expect him to run very, very well......" but on the other hand he made the remark that ".....I'd like to have had another work into him and we're giving away a lot of weight while having a new rider today......" Still, if he was only 80% I thought he was good enough to beat these. He ran lights out and scored handily to validate the voters who'd named him the Horse of the Year and I cashed with another prime time play!
The eighth at Keeneland was a third level allowance and again I had mixed feelings about my top choice. One Liner came from the Todd Pletcher barn. He'd won his 2yo debut then at the 2017 Gulfstream Championship Meet he'd won, then shipped to Arkansas and won the Grade 3 Southwest before being sent to the farm. When he came back this winter I had him over Dubai Golden Shaheen champion Mind Your Biscuits who was prepping for defense of that title. But jockey Javier Castellano, in my opinion gave him a poor ride and he was third. Or maybe he wasn't as good this year? I liked the rider change to Jose Ortiz and I tripled the bet. From the one hole he went right to the front and was hounded all the way. Midway on the turn the longer price pace presser edged by him. You need to understand how the xpressbet replay screen is set up. There is the replay screen top left, and a "results" box top right. But you have the option to "Show" or "Hide" the results, and I always hide them so it's like watching the race "live." As One Liner was headed and dropped back I went out of full screen replay mode and hit the "Show" tab so I could see who this upset winner was. Wait, the results show the winner as "#1" - that's me, that's One Liner! As I'm seeing this I hear the Keeneland announcer excitedly call that Ortiz has swung One Liner off the rail and outside horses and rallying him. Drew past to win going away! Ha ha ha, whoooo hoooo!
I closed out the day by winning the finale at Woodbine, a non-winners of two lifetime event going five furlongs. Eight of the runners were a combined 8-for-263, ouch, so it looked to be one of the "lightly raced" runners race to lose. I did NOT like that Danzig Rainbow had "won" his only race via DQ, but I DID like that he was moving today into the Norman McKnight barn. That was a 30% win angle, and the layoff was a 36% winning angle, while jockey Brian Hernandez was a 30% winning rider. He went off at a generous 5/2 and won going away to top off a 5-for-9 day with a solid profit!
It's been a great spring so far!
April 25 - Happy Birthday Jeff!
It was my oldest son's 35th birthday - wow, how did that happen! I decided I'd play Keeneland today while working on several other projects. But one of the biggest stories of the day came about twenty minutes before post time when there was a knock on the door and the mailman handed me a package.....from the Black Forest in Germany......
HORRAY! Couldn't be more excited! For the Wednesday racing card I had six selections from an eight race program. Four of them resulted with the same kind of outcome.....as the field turned for home my selection surged to the front, but through the lane was outfinished :( Ran 4th at 3/2, 3rd at 3/2, 2nd at 2/1 and 3rd at a nice 9/2 price. But the racing story of the day was that I zigged when I should have by upping the wager in BOTH of my winning races. The third race today at Keeneland was a Maiden Special going 4 1/2 furlongs for two-year-olds. Yes, there was a Wesley Ward runner, but that was the problem....there were two of them. Last Thursday when I played I had passed the race where two were entered only to watch the filly Abyssinian scratch and the other Ward juvenile run away as easily best. So in the entries today there was Absynnian again! So I vowed that if they both ran I'd be betting one of them, but I was guessing one would scratch. Sure enough, Absyinnian withdrew and so I upped the wager to a prime-time play. Stage Left broke sharply under go-to rider Albin Jiminez and was LONG gone!
After running second in the fourth race I made the rest of the bets and decided I'd just watch the replays later because I didn't want to get sucked into throwing money away chasing a profit on a single day. Later in the afternoon I opened my xpressbet app on my phone to check where we were on the racing day and saw it was eighteen minutes to the eighth and final of the day. So I could watch the replay from the sixth and then see my last pick of the day run live, so I opened up my xpressbet account on the computer and watched as I ran third at 9/2. Then I flipped over and saw that Brielle's Appeal was hovering around even money. I recalled that (a) I thought she looked easily best in the second level turf sprint as not only was she the owner of the fastest Beyer figure, but she also looked to be the lone speed. And (b) I remembered that the pre-race analysts had agreed that playing the multi-race wagers she would be "everyone's single." I had already bet $15 to win, so I looked at the multi-race payoffs and she was a prohibitive favorite. Even money, to me, seemed way too big of a price so I invested another $15. Right to the front and ran away by a pole! Oh it was a good day again!
Saturday I plan to be at the races at Gulfstream where I'll play at least half a dozen tracks.
April 14: Arkansas Derby Day
On our final night of our trip while at a hotel in Lake Lucerne, Switzerland I downloaded the past performances for Oaklawn on Saturday when we'd be home in South Florida (note the Breeders' Cup jacket I wore throughout the trip....oh yeah!). I was able to do some handicapping on the flight from Newark to Fort Lauderdale and then I finished on Saturday morning. For the afternoon I had six selections from Hot Springs and one international pick - Winx in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Radwick. I made that bet Friday evening as her post time would be at about 1 am. As I watched the replay I have to admit to being a bit concerned when as they hit the far turn she seemed completely unhurried and in the back of the pack. But when jockey Hugh Bowman asked her to run she swung into the clear and mowed down the field like they were all running at half speed! Should have upped the bet as she paid $2.70, which was a HUGE payoff for a champion winning her 25th in a row!
The first half of the Arkansas Derby Day card was light with selections. Not sure if it's because I was handicapping at the end of a day-long international flight; being conservative; or there just weren't any runners worth my money. But through through the first seven races I had just two minimum play selections - ran 2nd and 3rd. In the Northern Spur Stakes Title Ready was the 4/5 favorite and was only fourth. But then I hit my first big winner of the afternoon when Whitmore ran in the Grade 2 Count Fleet Handicap. Whitmore was the penultimate "Horse for the Course" with five wins in eight tries over the Arkansas main track and it was noteworthy that all three losses came when trying two turns when on the early Derby trail as a 3yo. Since then he was a perfect five-for-five in one turn sprints with ALL of them earning triple digit Beyer figures, including his win in this event last spring (when I was there!) and in the prep for this. He looked to sit farther back today and make a big late run. Did exactly that and won going away as a prime time selection!
I thought that So Cal invader Accelerate was equally formidable in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. He was 2-for-2 at the nine furlong distance and was exiting a 110 Beyer figure when winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. But he was upset and ran second at 6/5 odds. But the feature race of the day and signature event of the meet was my race.....the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby. Todd Pletcher's Magnum Moon had broke his maiden at Gulfstream in January when I was in New Orleans at the Fair Grounds with my buddy Jim Anderson. Despite being a first timer he was my BET of the Day. So when he paid a remarkable $9.20 I cashed for nearly $150! I nearly missed his next start but I was handicapping a Friday card at Gulfstream in mid-February when I noted top rider Luis Saez was not on any horses. Thought that odd and so I checked the entries at other tracks and saw he was on Magnum Moon in an allowance event going two turns at Tampa. I knew this was his "Derby prep" test and so I had him again as he easily won. Next time out he was entered in the Grade 2 Rebel here at Oaklawn. Jim and I were on ANOTHER racing adventure, this time at Laurel Park and I liked him again. I went back and forth about the wagering amount before finally sticking with my initial plan where I tripled the bet, and again he was MUCH the best!
I looked at the past performances, but it was a foregone conclusion who'd I be supporting! He looked, on paper to have an ideal trip pressing the pace to the far turn and then running away. But when they broke from the gate he was alone on the lead. You could see Saez look at the others as if to say, "Really, you want ME to take the lead?" And so he did. Coasted at a good clip through the far turn and when a challenger made a bid he accelerated for the wire and won convincingly, stamping himself as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites. I had upped to bet by a click to make him my BEST of the Day and I finished on the day 3-for-7 (counting the Winx race, since it technically was on Saturday)!
Thursday April 19: Keeneland Racing
I didn't have plans to play the races on this Thursday but I'd completed all the "to do" items on my list and had time to handicap the races in the morning. I found six runners worthy of investing and won with two of the first three. The first was a Wesley Ward first time starting two-year-old, like those are a big secret at Keeneland this time of the year.....
.....and then Portfolio Manager in the third. The Midwest Thoroughbred-owned runner had been moved from a NY trainer's barn to Tom Amoss' barn in New Orleans and he tried him in a turf sprint. No good as he ran his lowest career Beyer. Back to the main track and dropped in for $20K he looked formidable and was the DRF "best" of the day.
Scored with a triple investment and finished 2-for-6 today.
Friday we drove to Orlando for a weekend with our grandson (and his parents) and I planned to play the Woodbine Opening Day card, as well as a couple of races from Keeneland.
As I had started handicapping the Woodbine card on Friday morning I remembered that local handicapper and author Jim Mazur - from whom I frequently have bought handicapping books most notably for their "40% Club" stats - usually had an arrangement with Woodbine and offered his books for free via their website. Sure enough, I found them and downloaded the handicapping tools. RIGHT away they paid big dividends! The third race was a starter allowance going seven furlongs. The program favorite was Kapellmeister, and he was a deserving favorite I thought. While they didn't show in his past performances he was a perfect 2-for-2 over the synthetic surface. In addition he was Woodbine analyst Jim Bannon's BEST of the day. But what drew my attention was the "club" angles. According to the Woodbine 40% Club stats, trainer Norman McKnight had raced 29 runners for the ownership group of Racer's Edge & McMasters over the last two racing seasons, and he won with a remarkable fifteen - that is a whopping 52% for those of you without your calculator handy! YOWZA! In addition, McKnight made the "Win Early" list for Mazur with 37% winners over the first twenty days of racing. Finally, jockey Brian Hernandez was a 31% winner for the barn. Figured to go off at odds on, but I looked to cash and make some money as he was my BEST BET of the day. I watched the races early Saturday evening and when watching replays from Woodbine the little chicklets only show the numbers not the odds or names of the runners. When Kapellmeister came up the rail - after encountering trouble through the turn and into the lane - to score I was delighted. Then I saw the payoff - oh my!
What a gift from the countless handicappers who obviously did NOT have their copy of the Woodbine Handicapper. WHOOOO HOOOOO! The fourth at Keeneland was a maiden claiming sprint for $20K and that was the "issue" I had with favored Ravish. He'd earned a big 66 Beyer when plunged to the basement at the Fair Grounds for just $12.5K and if able to reproduce that he'd win for fun. How to interpret the step UP in claiming price today? As it turned out I should have seen it as a positive as he did win convincingly.
The eighth at Woodbine was their featured Jacques Cartier Stakes going six furlongs and the star attraction of the race and the day was 2017 Canadian Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd. I had had this guy on many of his eight straight wins last year, all here, all in stakes including two open/graded events. If he was ready to roll off the shelf he would make short work of these rivals. I read the news article on the Woodbine site in advance of the race and I had somewhat mixed feelings about what his trainer had to say. On the one hand, he repeated three times, ".....I expect him to run very, very well......" but on the other hand he made the remark that ".....I'd like to have had another work into him and we're giving away a lot of weight while having a new rider today......" Still, if he was only 80% I thought he was good enough to beat these. He ran lights out and scored handily to validate the voters who'd named him the Horse of the Year and I cashed with another prime time play!
The eighth at Keeneland was a third level allowance and again I had mixed feelings about my top choice. One Liner came from the Todd Pletcher barn. He'd won his 2yo debut then at the 2017 Gulfstream Championship Meet he'd won, then shipped to Arkansas and won the Grade 3 Southwest before being sent to the farm. When he came back this winter I had him over Dubai Golden Shaheen champion Mind Your Biscuits who was prepping for defense of that title. But jockey Javier Castellano, in my opinion gave him a poor ride and he was third. Or maybe he wasn't as good this year? I liked the rider change to Jose Ortiz and I tripled the bet. From the one hole he went right to the front and was hounded all the way. Midway on the turn the longer price pace presser edged by him. You need to understand how the xpressbet replay screen is set up. There is the replay screen top left, and a "results" box top right. But you have the option to "Show" or "Hide" the results, and I always hide them so it's like watching the race "live." As One Liner was headed and dropped back I went out of full screen replay mode and hit the "Show" tab so I could see who this upset winner was. Wait, the results show the winner as "#1" - that's me, that's One Liner! As I'm seeing this I hear the Keeneland announcer excitedly call that Ortiz has swung One Liner off the rail and outside horses and rallying him. Drew past to win going away! Ha ha ha, whoooo hoooo!
I closed out the day by winning the finale at Woodbine, a non-winners of two lifetime event going five furlongs. Eight of the runners were a combined 8-for-263, ouch, so it looked to be one of the "lightly raced" runners race to lose. I did NOT like that Danzig Rainbow had "won" his only race via DQ, but I DID like that he was moving today into the Norman McKnight barn. That was a 30% win angle, and the layoff was a 36% winning angle, while jockey Brian Hernandez was a 30% winning rider. He went off at a generous 5/2 and won going away to top off a 5-for-9 day with a solid profit!
It's been a great spring so far!
April 25 - Happy Birthday Jeff!
It was my oldest son's 35th birthday - wow, how did that happen! I decided I'd play Keeneland today while working on several other projects. But one of the biggest stories of the day came about twenty minutes before post time when there was a knock on the door and the mailman handed me a package.....from the Black Forest in Germany......
HORRAY! Couldn't be more excited! For the Wednesday racing card I had six selections from an eight race program. Four of them resulted with the same kind of outcome.....as the field turned for home my selection surged to the front, but through the lane was outfinished :( Ran 4th at 3/2, 3rd at 3/2, 2nd at 2/1 and 3rd at a nice 9/2 price. But the racing story of the day was that I zigged when I should have by upping the wager in BOTH of my winning races. The third race today at Keeneland was a Maiden Special going 4 1/2 furlongs for two-year-olds. Yes, there was a Wesley Ward runner, but that was the problem....there were two of them. Last Thursday when I played I had passed the race where two were entered only to watch the filly Abyssinian scratch and the other Ward juvenile run away as easily best. So in the entries today there was Absynnian again! So I vowed that if they both ran I'd be betting one of them, but I was guessing one would scratch. Sure enough, Absyinnian withdrew and so I upped the wager to a prime-time play. Stage Left broke sharply under go-to rider Albin Jiminez and was LONG gone!
Saturday I plan to be at the races at Gulfstream where I'll play at least half a dozen tracks.
